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EIA: Global crude oil spare capacity has dropped significantly

According to news from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on June 24, its new report "Global Crude Oil Remaining Capacity" shows that in May 2022, due to the decline in the remaining capacity of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, the global crude oil remaining capacity Less than half the 2021 average.

Among them, the remaining crude oil capacity of non-OPEC countries decreased by 80% compared with 2021 to 280,000 barrels per day. In 2021, non-OPEC countries have 1.4 million barrels of spare capacity per day, of which about 60% are in Russia. Due to sanctions against Russia after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, all remaining capacity in Russia is currently eliminated. The EIA expects remaining crude oil production capacity in other non-OPEC producers to decline. OPEC countries' spare capacity will fall to 3 million bpd from 5.4 million bpd in 2021.

The EIA defines crude oil spare capacity as the maximum existing capacity that can be released within 30 days and lasts for at least 90 days, excluding unplanned (including sanctions) shutdowns of crude oil production, which cannot enter the market autonomously. As a result, the EIA excludes crude oil from Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and the current Russian shutdown from its assessment of remaining capacity.

Although there are many factors affecting oil prices, the availability of spare capacity has historically been linked to oil market tensions and changes in global oil prices, the EIA said. One of the reasons is that OPEC producers tend to reduce crude oil when demand is sluggish and prices fall. Production. Oil prices will also respond to low levels of spare capacity. The oil market is closely watching the availability of spare capacity to deal with shortages caused by supply disruptions.

Global crude oil remaining capacity varies over time. In 1985 it exceeded 11.3 million barrels per day. From 1990 to 2015, the remaining capacity reached 5.3 million barrels per day. Only in 2020 and 2021 will spare capacity exceed 1990-2015 levels, a result of lower oil demand and OPEC+ production cuts following the global pandemic. (Reporter Li Xiaosong)

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